Developers are tapping the brakes on new condo sites in South Florida, wary of mounting inventory levels across the market.

BMO Commercial Bank’s Shawn Oden, Two Roads Development’s Taylor Collins, The Baldwin Group’s Alyssa Demartino, Brix Funding’s Craig Robbie and The Calta Group’s Gaetano Caltagirone.

A September Miami Realtors report shows Miami-Dade has 14 months of condo inventory, more than twice the six-to-nine months seen as balanced. The excess is already making developers pump the brakes, they said at Bisnow’s Miami State of the Market event Thursday.

“That’s a lot of inventory,” Two Roads Development partner Taylor Collins said on stage at the Waterford Business District. “So, sitting there and going like, ‘Oh, I’m gonna go do another luxury condo that’s gonna add more inventory,’ it’s difficult.”

Even after the Federal Reserve trimmed rates by 25 basis points last week, Collins said Two Roads remains cautious: Elevated borrowing costs and South Florida’s pricey construction, labor and insurance environment make new land buys tough to justify.

To sidestep years of carrying costs, developers are steering clear of South Florida acquisitions until inventory levels normalize, Collins said. 

“Buying something on the ocean and saying, ‘Hey, I’m not going to start this for three years,’ the burn rate on that money to carry that property will eat all your profits,” Collins said.

Miami’s condo inventory surged 25% over the past year, with listings up from 10,094 to 12,637 in August, according to the report. 

According to its website, despite the slowdown, Two Roads has projects in the works, including the 56-unit Rivage Residences Bal Harbour with Related Group, Rockpoint and Witkoff Group — and the under-construction 185-unit, 55-story Edition Residences.

They’re among 37 condo projects in the works across the region, expected to add over 9,000 units, according to the report.

“I think that you look at the pipeline and it can feel scary, because there’s so many projects coming up,” The Continuum Co. President Allie Eichner said. “There will be winners and losers here. nNt everyone is going to win in this cycle.”

The result has been a condo market “doom loop” — units saddled with repair costs, dwindling values, higher association fees and soaring insurance premiums.

Older condos are taking longer to move — a median 106 days versus 87 a year ago, Miami Realtors found — while Fannie Mae is increasingly blacklisting them from loan backing, The Miami Herald reported.

That backdrop, Collins said, distorts the inventory picture but still spooks lenders and investors who only see oversupply.

“The 14 months is skewed, but it’s also a data point that we kind of see from, call it, a micro-level,” Collins said.

“The banks don’t see it like that, so when you go off and try to talk to a bank, they’re sitting there going, ‘Hey, there’s 14 months’ worth of inventory here, what are you doing?’”

As Two Roads waits out the market, some rivals are pressing ahead. Calta Group President Gaetano Caltagirone said that even with obstacles like financing, sales and politics, developers can’t simply sit on the sidelines.

“It’s hard for any of us to kind of sit and say, ‘You know what, I’m not going to do anything right now for a couple of years,’” Caltagirone said.

“There’s not many people who arethat privileged to do that. You have to be dynamic. You have to adjust the market that you see and just make sure that you can survive whatever’s in front of you.”